This map shows the current state of the 2024 Presidential Election, comprised entirely of poll results from RCP (July 12, 2024).

Before I get into the map, I would like to start by talking about the most embarrassing moment in American history: the Presidential debate that happened 15 days ago. While Donald Trump was spending his time lying about everything from the economy to his bungling of the COVID-19 pandemic, President Biden was hoarse, aloof, and telling lies by mistake because he couldn't string a sentence together without mistaking billionaires with trillionaires and abortion rights with illegal immigration. While the map hasn't changed very much, the spirit around this election truly has. There is a loud and spirited push by voters, TV pundits, and elected officials to replace Biden with another candidate. This conversation is occurring, of course, after the primaries, which means the only way to get a new nominee would be for him to choose to be replaced before the convention in August.

Most of this is already well understood by people reading it. The only statement I will make on this matter, one representing solely my opinion and not that of organizations I work for or am affiliated with, is that the President seems to feel he is the only one capable of defeating Trump, a mentality that reflects a rather low opinion of his fellow Democrats and an extremely inflated ego that doesn't help his case of being less dangerous than Donald Trump. I didn't want him to run for a second term nor support the DNC effort to ensure candidates running against him become persona non grata, which ensured Biden was uncontested in his primary win. As of this point, the President has made a number of public statements clearly declaring his commitment to run, meaning that my analysis of the 2024 race will be with the assumption that he will be on the ballot in November and, at least in my state, the only one standing in the way of a felon and self-professed wannabe dictator getting a second chance, this time with a plan to overhaul the government as laid out in Project 2025. With that said, here is the current polling for the 2024 election.

Michigan has gone back to being a tie, something that could be positive news for Biden, except that Wisconsin has gone from tilt Trump to lean Trump. I don't want to overstate the level of concern left-minded people should have, but even if Biden wins Michigan, he also needs 31 electoral points more than that, so possibly Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Maine, which is the most likely combo or some other combo.
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Feel free to compare this to the map from June below.