Zara J Day
As of 28-Apr-2024
This map is the current state of the 2024 Presidential Election comprised entirely of poll results from RCP (Apr 28, 2024).
Biden's polling in the key state of Michigan has increased to the point that the state is sitting at a tie. I marked it as leaning toward Biden only because that is the trajectory. This is good news for the Biden campaign early in the year because he will need the area called "the Blue Wall," Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, to win in November.
His support in those states waxes and wanes month to month. An average of 6.4 percent of people there report to have not decided who to vote for which is within the margin between Trump and Biden in all of those states plus about 29 other states. Until we are much closer to the election and people are more willing to choose between Trump or Biden, no conclusion can be made on what the outcome of the 2024 election might be.
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Feel free to compare this map to those below.
As of 3-Apr-2024
This map is the current state of the 2024 Presidential Election comprised entirely of poll results from RCP (Apr 3, 2024).
Biden has been closing the gap a little in the battleground states of Wisconsin and North Carolina. He will need Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to flip by November entirely, plus a state like Nevada, North Carolina, or Georgia to win the election. Polling has indicated that undecided voters tend to lean toward Biden 2 to 1, which could shift the tide for Biden in these states, but it's not good for Biden if he is relying on people who are also considering Trump.
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Feel free to compare this to the Pre-SOTU projection below.
In The Keys to the White House, Lichtman and Keilis-Borok developed a way to predict presidential elections by looking at 13 factors in how voters decide who to vote for. As recently as March 7th, Lichtman has said Biden is likely to win based on this system. Here is my best approximation of why he might believe that. I've marked True of 8 of these factors, meaning several things would have to go wrong for Biden to lose.
The Charismatic factors are based on his ratings in 2020 about the same candidates and the foreign/military factors are based on 59.4% disapproving of his foreign policy and 52.3% disapproving of his handing of Ukraine (RCP).
This graph is the approval numbers of every President in the last 44 years. Joe Biden is currently in Bush (41) territory and more than 5 points below where Trump was at this time four years ago. Considering this is a rematch with Trump, this doesn't bode well. His high point was during the pandemic and his low was around the the Dobbs decision.
Reagan53%37% Bush 4160%28% Clinton56%38% Bush 4349%45% Obama48%47% Trump43%53% Biden44%52%
As of 27-Mar-2024
Solid Blue (28) and Red (38): seat not up for election. States without polls: CT, DE, FL, HI, ME, MN, MS, NE, NM, NY, RI, VT, WV, WY.
ME and VT: Ind incumbents likely to be re-elected. WV's Dem senator not running, so likely Republican replacement.
MT: Tester (D) leading Sheehy (R) by over 5 points.
MD: Popular former governor Hogan (R) 6% ahead of either Dem challenger. Hogan is popular for having been a moderate republican focused on governance rather than social politics and fear mongering. Like Christ Christie (R-NJ), another former governor for a "blue" state, Hogan stated this month he won't vote for Fmr. President Trump.
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Closest race: Slotkin (D) vs Rogers (R) in MI, with Slotkin up by 1%. Incumbent Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) won by 6.5% in 2018, Gary Peters (D-MI) won by 1.5% in 2020. Low turnout for Biden in areas like Dearborn could tilt the scale for Rogers.
Projected Senate: 49 Dem/Ind, 51 Rep.
As of 7-Mar-2024
This map is the current state of the 2024 Presidential Election comprised entirely of poll results from RCP prior to the State of the Union (Mar 7, 2024).
The popular vote was constructed from multiplying state vote counts in 2020 by the percentages of the state polling for candidates qualified to be on the ballot. Despite Kennedy getting 13% of the vote in national polling, as of 10 March, there is not method by which people can vote for him in 42 out of 51 contests.
Biden is well within the realm of winning Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania and needs to do so if he is to win. If he can turn another state like Nevada, North Carolina, or Georgia, he can give himself a victory. Otherwise, he would be risking this going to the Republican leaning House of Representatives for them to choose the President.